Malmstrom AFB, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

237
FXUS65 KTFX 120224
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
824 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It turns very warm, windy, along with lower humidity for
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

- A thunderstorm possible late Tue afternoon/evening mostly for
  areas along and south of I-90 from Butte to Bozeman.

- Seasonable August temperatures, along with mostly dry conditions
  are expected from Thursday through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast is out. Only change this evening was to remove
pops through Noon tomorrow, as the air mass is just a bit too
stable for precipitation to develop. Overall, temperatures for
tonight look on track.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, still looking like the best chance for
any storms will be the late afternoon/evening for areas along
south of I-90 from Butte to Bozeman. Brief heavy rain/gusty
winds/lightning will be the main impact. Afternoon temperatures
will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer for most areas as well.
Brusda

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 526 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:
A weak upper level disturbance will move southward through North
Central MT this evening. This disturbance could produce a few
showers/thunderstorms along the Rocky Mountain Front and across
the mountain areas between Great Falls and Lewistown.

For Tuesday and Wednesday...warmer air will move northward into
the CWA, allowing for a return of very warm afternoon
temperatures. Afternoon highs will climb into the 90s for lower
elevation locations. Additionally, do expect lower humidity and
winder conditions during the afternoon hours. There will be a
chance for thunderstorms across Southwest MT late Tue afternoon
into Tue evening as an upper level disturbance moves through that
portion of the state.

For Thursday through Monday...generally a warm westerly flow aloft
will reside over the entire northern Rockies during this period.
This will result in seasonable August temperatures most days. In
terms of precipitation, weak upper level disturbances will move
through the CWA from time to time, with small chances for a
passing shower/thunderstorm as the disturbance moves through.
Overall, no widespread significant precipitation events are
expected over our CWA at this time during this period.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Afternoon temperatures will be on the warm side for Tue and Wed,
along with lower humidity and stronger winds. This will increase
fire concerns, especially for grassy areas. Other than the fire
weather watch for Southwest MT for Wednesday, no other fire
statements are planned for areas further north because of the
recent precipitation.

For thunderstorm potential for Tue afternoon/evening...some of
the storms could produce some strong wind gusts, with the Dillon
to Bozeman area the most favored area right now per the HREF
model. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
12/00Z TAF Period

There is a small chance for an isolated storm this evening over
the Rocky Mountain Front and across the mountains of Central MT,
from Great Falls to Lewistown. Otherwise, expect dry conditions,
with passing areas of mid/high clouds. On Tuesday, expect surface
winds to increase during the afternoon hours, with a small chance
for a passing storm after 21z Tue, mainly affecting areas
along/south of I-90 from Butte to Bozeman. Gusty winds/brief heavy
rainfall/lightning will be the main impact from any storms
tonight or on Tue. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect warmer and drier conditions to develop over the districts
over the next few days. Also, winds will increase, especially by
Wednesday. This will result in elevated fire weather conditions
for grassy areas.

A fire weather watch was issued for portions of Southwest MT for
these conditions on Wednesday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  91  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  53  86  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  57  91  60  92 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  91  55  92 /   0  10  10  10
WYS  41  83  43  84 /   0  20  10  20
DLN  51  88  52  89 /   0  20  10  10
HVR  55  87  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  58  89 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire weather watch for portions of Southwest MT for Wednesday.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls